Ten years after the UK entered into a hurried public vote that divided the country and caused chaos, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is prepared.
That represents the warning from two prominent journalists from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly tense and monumental referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our region remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have studied the governmental, financial and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the issue with a tour of lectures that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everybody, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose results have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily divided society where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side are uncertain quite what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say such a time is imminent, and a group named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, making it uncertain whether or when there will be a referendum.
Absence of Serious Debate
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has masked the lack of informed dialogue, said the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to achieve it is mostly absent. A great deal has gone on in academia but very few government figures or advocates seek to involve themselves even with the basics. To illustrate, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the book, no writer advocates unity or the status quo. Each authors two pieces that aim for objectivity in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the rationale against, marshalling economic and societal statistics, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Arguments range over flags and symbols, taxes, health services, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The aim is to educate and stimulate discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there hasn't quite been a discussion," said O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an acceptance of the notion that there might be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they prefer unity but reject paying higher taxes or introducing a new flag to recognise unionists' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin must determine what the plan from Irish nationalism is aside from just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist considers a national vote in his generation is possible and that it might occur abruptly. "There might be just a mad or a bad or a negligent government minister who says: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, legitimate arguments, he said. "One side will win on this issue and somebody will eventually be defeated but both parties has got something to gain from the other's positions."
Call for Wider Discussion
Westminster must join the discussion, stated the analyst. "This involves your state. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish matter."
