🔗 Share this article

Typically, the National Football League's Head Coach of the Year trophy follows a simple script. It commonly serves as a form of apology. Our apologies we got wrong your squad in our preseason projections.

In theory, it's a direct path: the skipper who oversaw the biggest turnaround is handed the prize. In practice, it sparks an annual argument about preseason outlooks and whether we're actually honoring excellent leadership or simply the greatest upset.

But the latest field is distinctly unique. The pool of nominees is remarkably talented. It has been the year of resurgences. The NFL has been unpredictable, with reigning conference winners declining and longtime strugglers rising collectively. In an ordinary year, Sean Payton guiding the Denver Broncos to the summit of the AFC would make him the overwhelming front-runner. Yet in such a chaotic and thrilling season, he's facing several other exceptional candidates.

Below is how the projected vote could be structured.

5) Ben Johnson, His Team, Their Record

Coach of the Year selectors adore QBs. This is a tradition. A certain coach in 2017. Another in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. When you transform a franchise QB, you're well on your way to winning the award.

Ben Johnson didn't merely corrected Caleb Williams; he's unlocked him. Given a proper system, the QB has been given the opportunity to display his special ability. From midseason onward, the Chicago offense sit at number four in offensive Expected Points Added per play. That's not a lucky run – it's sustained performance. Under his guidance, Williams has become more decisive, less reckless, and has willingly surrendered to the gameplan rather than improvising. It is an offense constructed entirely in Johnson's vision: a physical ground attack, a heavy helping of play-action and a creative aerial game that springs wide-open receivers everywhere. The QB has thrived. And when easy reads haven't been there, he's been capable to spin big plays from nothing.

The coach came to the Bears with a defined offensive philosophy. Almost each gamble – overhauling the offensive line, featuring the tight ends, turning Williams into a rhythm thrower – has succeeded. This is rare for a rookie head coach. And it's rarer still for a coach who entered the organization with the immense expectations he did. For two straight cycles, he was the hottest candidate on the coaching carousel. But when it comes to selecting a head coach, there are zero guarantees. Remarkably, he has lived up to expectations – and even exceeded them. He's demonstrated not only to be a offensive genius but the kind of leader that can breathe new life into an franchise.

During a ordinary year, he would be the clear-cut choice. Yet the current isn't a typical campaign!

Where Johnson's case comes a bit into trouble is on the defensive side. The Chicago defense presently rank in the bottom third in defensive success rate. They are living on turnovers, and takeaways are notoriously fickle. Defensive minds can focus on creating turnovers, but no one can guarantee it. Johnson is on the ballot because the offense is sustainable. He's ranked lower because luck is doing an outsized share of the defensive heavy lifting. If not for a few breaks of the ball, the Bears would be two wins behind. It's been an remarkable turnaround, and the foundation is in place for sustained winning. However Johnson comes up just short here.

4) Liam Coen, His Team, Their Record

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable spot to his counterpart. He's a fellow rookie leader who has orchestrated a swift resurgence. During the crucial final weeks of the year, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the most complete all-around football of his professional life. And he's also overseen the overhaul of a defense that now ranks fifth in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play.

What's more impressively, he has excelled at the off-field aspects, which wasn't a guarantee following his initial press conference introduction and some of his offseason decisions.

Coen took over the Jaguars with an exceptionally inexperienced staff. Unlike other coaches, who packed themselves with the perfect coaching cocktail of new ideas and veteran savvy, Coen bet on newbies. From the leader on down to coordinators to position coaches, the Jaguars are stocked with rookies. That type of approach is exciting on paper, but often fails in practice – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everybody is figuring out a their job on the fly. But Coen has managed to bring everyone and all elements together.

Following an initial strong beginning, there was a possibility that the season would go off the rails. A midseason collapse caused the Jags stumbling once more. That's typically when coaches overcorrect. Coen didn't. Instead, he streamlined the approach. Jacksonville stopped pursuing home-run answers and started seeking consistent ones. The coach recentered the offense around his playmakers and the ground attack, and asked Lawrence to use his legs more often.

The results are clear. The Jaguars have won seven games in a row and will be the AFC's No 3 seed. Coen gets the tiniest knock in the rankings because he inherited a skilled roster, but he has proven he can get the most out of that roster.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, Seattle Seahawks, 13-3

Each Coach of the Year argument has a hinge moment. For the Seahawks coach, it was his QB decision.

Parting ways from a incumbent, signing a different quarterback and pairing him with an new play-caller could have ended the season in October. Instead, it defined it. Through the middle point of the year, the acquisition was an MVP contender. He has cooled off after that time, slipping to a lower rank in efficiency per pass attempt over the latter part of the season, putting him just a single spot ahead of peers.

Still